Risk profiles for HPV vaccinated birth-cohorts (WP3)

In the coming decade, we will see the first results of HPV vaccination on screening outcomes. As this will reduce cervical cancer incidence, it will also complicate screening, further urging the need for risk-based screening. We will develop cervical cancer and precancer risk profiles based on vaccination coverage. Our main data resource will be the outcomes of a Finnish randomized screening trial where 80,000 women with known vaccination status have been randomized to frequent or infrequent HPV screening. This study was initiated as part of the CoheaHr project and main results will be collected as part of RISCC. The trial will provide direct, unbiased estimates of the impact of frequent vs. infrequent screening on cervical disease outcomes. Moreover, the trial provides estimates of the indirect herd effects of vaccination on the disease risk in unvaccinated women. Registry data will be retrieved from screening and pathology registries in several European countries, and for some linkage to the vaccination status at the individual level will be established.